Il nuovo rapporto di Drewry non prospetta un futuro roseo da qui al 2025, con tassi di utilizzo che aumenteranno del 2.5% invece che del 5%. Intanto, arriva anche l’allarme dell’ONU.
I porti container sono ad un bivio, o meglio al palo: è quanto emerge dall’ultimo rapporto degli analisti di Drewry – società di ricerca marittima indipendente che offre approfondimenti di mercato e servizi di consulenza – che prospetta una situazione tutt’altro che rosea per i terminal fino al 2025. Al centro dell’analisi, i tassi di utilizzo dei porti per container che risultano sensibilmente ridotti rispetto all’anno precedente.
A preoccupare sono però le prospettive future promosse dall’Annual Review and Forecast di Global Container Terminal Operators: stando al rapporto, i tassi d’utilizzo dovrebbero restare piatti fino al 2025, con una crescita in media all’anno del 2.5% – rispetto al 5% della domanda globale – sino a raggiungere 1,3 miliardi di Teu nel 2025. Ma con l’aumento della domanda globale stimato nello stesso periodo, l’analisi di Drewry stima che i tassi di utilizzo subiranno un incremento dell’8%, passando dall’attuale 67% a oltre il 75%.
Ma secondo l’operatore inglese si tratta di una percentuale troppo bassa: oltre a preoccupare questo livello non sufficientemente elevato per porti e terminal container, spaventa anche l’aspettativa di “restringere la capacità attuale in un mercato già afflitto da problemi di congestione e carenza di attrezzature che già stanno creando enormi squilibri alla supply chain”.
Come sottolinea Eleanor Hadland, autrice del report e senior analyst per porti e terminal di Drewry, “l’effetto rimbalzo sulla ripresa della domanda, aiutato dagli elevati livelli di liquidità nel mercato finanziario, ha consentito agli operatori del settore di portare avanti i propri piani di investimento per avere capacità ricettive più forti nel periodo post-pandemia”.
Il rapporto segnala però che la maggior parte della capacità aggiuntiva prevista verrà movimentata presso terminal esistenti, con le nuove costruzioni che allo stato attuale rappresentano una bassa priorità per gli operatori.
Un certo numero di vettori ha continuato a dismettere asset, preferendo garantire capacità e livelli di prestazioni tramite accordi commerciali a lungo termine con i terminal operator.
Nel frattempo è arrivato inoltre l’allarme dell’ONU sulle tempistiche dilatate che stanno imbrigliando la logistica: l’analisi dell’UNCTAD – Conferenza delle Nazioni Unite sul Commercio e lo Sviluppo – sottolinea il vertiginoso aumento dei costi, ponendo come principale responsabile la crisi sanitaria.
Punto di riferimento la rotta da Shanghai al Brasile, per un container da 20 piedi: il nolo risulta ad oggi essere cinque volte superiore alla media degli ultimi dodici anni.
I tempi di consegna per container e collegamenti di trasporto intermodale sono più lenti del normale – ha sottolineato Jan Hoffmann, Head of Trade Logistics di UNCTAD – con i porti che devono rispettare i protocolli sanitari.
Tuttavia il dato che preoccupa è la capacità di offerta:
Non sta crescendo abbastanza velocemente da soddisfare la domanda, inoltre la capacità dei porti di adeguarsi è più limitata rispetto a quella delle compagnie di navigazione.
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