L’analisi congiunta di Achille Fornasini – professore dell’Università di Brescia – e l’Ufficio studi di Anima Confindustria sottolinea il continuo rincaro: la speranza è quella di una diminuzione a fine 2021
Il prezzo delle materie prime continua a salire: innescatosi a maggio dello scorso anno, il rincaro continua a creare disagi alle imprese italiane. Si tratta purtroppo di una situazione destinata a non risolversi nel breve periodo, tuttavia c’è chi spera – come Confindustria – che un freno agli aumenti possa arrivare già a fine 2021.
Questa è la speranza prospettata dall’analisi di Achille Fornasini – professore dell’Università di Brescia – in collaborazione con l’ufficio studi di Anima Confindustria:
L’aumento del prezzo delle materie prime nell’ultimo anno non trova riscontri in nessun altro periodo storico – sancisce il presidente di Anima Confindustria, Marco Nocivelli – e nonostante un primo semestre positivo per la meccanica italiana, la mancanza di materie prime e semilavorati ha rallentato la produzione industriale.
Spetta però al professor Fornasini fare il punto sulle cause che hanno condotto al più alto e continuativo rincaro nella storia delle commodities:
In primo luogo ci sarebbe ovviamente la contrazione dell’offerta, provocata dai fermi e dalle chiusure degli impianti durante il lockdown: conseguenziale alla riapertura è invece il boom della domanda globale da parte delle regioni industrializzate come Asia, Nordamerica ed Europa.
A contribuire, anche l’inefficienza dei sistemi logistici internazionali e locali che hanno inevitabilmente rallentato la movimentazione nei porti. Da non sottovalutare inoltre, la pressoché simultanea ripartenza di tutti i sistemi industriali mondiali.
C’è tuttavia un aspetto molto sottovalutato in analisi di questo tipo, che il professor Fornasini tende a sottolineare:
Come se tutto ciò non bastasse, infatti, il graduale indebolimento del dollaro ha reso meno operosi gli approvigionamenti, trattandosi di materie prime quotate appunto nella divisa americana. Gran parte delle imprese, trovandosi a corto di scorte, si è lanciata in acquisti di materie prime ben più consistenti dei normali fabbisogni innescando una spirale – speculativa – di aumento dei prezzi che tuttora di autoalimenta. La speculazione finanziaria trova, in tal senso, un terreno fertile per le proprie scorribande, individuando nelle materie prime ottime alternative di investimento accelerandone i continui rincari.
Le difficoltà delle imprese persisteranno – continua Pietro Almici, vicepresidente Anima Confindustria – nell’ultimo mese le materie prime si sono assestate sui massimi storici. Confidiamo nel prossimo futuro in un calo dei prezzi e una maggiore reperibilità sul mercato.
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